Ogi Jokanovic, Research Assistant, Indian Ocean Research Programme
Background
(Future Directions) — Decades of inter-ethnic tension and perceived government marginalisation and discrimination have led to a wave of new protests that not only threaten the legitimacy of the ruling party, but also the fragile stability of the wider region. The demonstrations, a result of generations of animosity and distrust, stem from long-held grievances between the country’s two largest ethnic groups – the Oromo and the Amhara – over their treatment by the Tigrayan-dominated central government. While protests like these are not unusual or uncommon in Ethiopia, the current situation is the first in many years that has the possibility of causing widespread domestic and regional instability.
Summary
Ethiopia is a diverse state made up of many different tribal, ethnic and religious groups. The Oromo (34 per cent of the population) and the Amhara (27 per cent) are the two largest of the more than eighty recognised ethnic groups. Combined, they account for over half of the total population of Ethiopia. The two peoples, although traditional and historical rivals, have worked in unison during these most recent protests against the central government. The central government itself, while claiming to be a cross-representation of all groups within Ethiopia, is in fact dominated by one political party, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), a coalition that is dominated by the Tigrayan ethnic group. The Tigrayans, who only account for six percent of the total population, have dominated politics in both Ethiopia and neighbouring Eritrea for several decades and are accused by the Oromo and Amhara of widespread persecution and discrimination.
The protests, which began in November 2015, were sparked by the introduction of the Addis Ababa City Integrated Master Plan, a government initiative to expand the territorial limits of the country’s capital into neighbouring Oromo towns, threatening the large-scale displacement of Oromo farmers and possibly annexing certain areas of the Oromo-dominated region to the Tigrayan-led federal government. While the Master Plan initiative was subsequently scrapped in January, protests against the government have only continued to grow.
The protestors claim that the reactions to their peaceful demonstrations have been undemocratic and violent, resulting in hundreds of deaths and thousands of cases of false imprisonment. They view the response of the security forces as a continuation of the EPRDF’s long-standing policy of discrimination and harassment against their ethnic groups and have called for international condemnation of the government and its policies. The government, on the other hand, disputes the number of alleged casualties. It claims that the demonstrations have been anything but peaceful, that they are being led and funded by foreign-based activists and, most worryingly, that the protestors themselves have “terror links”.
While the international community has been cautious (or slow) in its response due to a lack of credible information from on the ground (which the protestors claim is a result of government blocks on the internet and social media), human rights groups and international organisations from within Ethiopia and around the region have been united in their condemnation of the government’s handling of the demonstrations.
The lack of a unified international response to the deteriorating situation – especially by Western governments and media – while worrying, is perhaps not surprising. The ruling EPRDF has strong relationships with both the European Union – which relies on Ethiopia’s help and support in containing the ongoing refugee crisis in Europe, and with the United States – which sends millions of dollars’ worth of aid each year to Ethiopia and views it as a strong security partner against the Islamic terrorist group al-Shabaab in neighbouring Somalia. While this diplomatic and cautious approach may be fine for the time being, there is a very real threat that the situation could escalate even further and threaten the stability not only of Ethiopia, but also of the surrounding region.
The Oromo and the Amhara are not the only ethnic groups in Ethiopia who feel marginalised by the central government. The Somalis, an overwhelmingly Muslim minority in the country’s south, are another group who may enter the conflict, further escalating tensions and possibly leading to more violence. While this possibility would no doubt worry the ruling government, it would also be concerning for the region and the international community. If the heavy-handed tactics that are allegedly being used against the Oromo and the Amhara were to be used against the Somalis, it could very likely result in cross-border violence with neighbouring and unstable Somalia and possibly turning Ethiopia into a new battlefront for the expansion of Islamist-inspired terrorism. The government will be hoping that it can end the demonstrations before this worrying, but very real threat has any chance of reaching fruition.
The underlying cause of the current situation is rooted in the inability of the government to allow its citizens the right to peacefully display dissent through traditional methods, such as the media and civil society. The ruling party’s stranglehold on parliament (of which it holds almost all of the seats), as well as its control over the flow information through the media – both domestically and internationally – leaves very little opportunity for other voices to be heard, or for criticism to be taken constructively. These factors, coupled with decades of distrust, animosity and a lack of government-sponsored economic and social development in Ethiopia’s poorer regions, has led to the violence and instability of today – instability that could, in the not too distant future, become a major threat to peace in this part of the Indian Ocean region.