By Leelloo Sabaa
While there has been an obvious shallow understanding and analysis of the root cause for lack of :peace, security, stability and prosperity in the region of the Horn of Africa , ignorance of the selfish and unjust regional and international system always operating to thwart the road to peace and direct actions or deliberate connive to maintain the status quo that perpetuates dependency of the region and enhance the control over this region by the international powers and their stooges, we have observed state managed celebration, glorification of regional leaders who bought their scheme, bombardment by colonial pundits analysis and propaganda aimed at hoodwinking the people of this region that with the demise of Ziad Barie of Somalia and Mangistu Haile Mariam, independence of Eritrea and South Sudan, the region of the Horn of Africa would be heaven of :peace, democracy and prosperity.
However, twenty six years after the demise of Ziad Bare, 25 years after the overthrowal of Mangistu and independence of Eritrea, there has never been: peace, stability and prosperity the people of this region have been yearning for. With the aim of weakening and finally destroying its imagined threat that can come from Somalia to its colonial domination in Finfinne, clan politics was purposely designed, financed and exported by the current Ethiopian government into Somalia with the consequence of the birth of Al-Shabaab and deep clan division and disunity in Somalia. Al-Shabaab that claims to have been born to counter Ethiopia’s uninvited intervention and meddling in Somalian affairs, has been designated as a terrorist organization against which the World has been waging a war but used by Ethiopia as a bargaining chip in its international diplomacy and as a cash cow through which it has been amassing huge: financial, military weapon and training assistance from the USA and European countries, greater proportion of which has been deployed also to crash peaceful Oromian protesters for freedom. The same ways Western powers argue that the presence of Assad as Syrias president is a magnet that attracts jihadist and terrorist to Syria, the presence of Ethiopia in Somalia has remained a magnet that attracts youth from East Africa toward Al-Shabaab. This strategic blunder by Ethiopia that have created breeding ground for Al-Shabaab and division within Somalia remains the major threat to: peace, security and prosperity in this ever turmoil region of the Horn of Africa.
With the defeat of Marxist leader of Ethiopian Empire Mangistu Haile Mariam, it was hugely expected and anticipated that there will no more be war and the oppressed people of this Empire will automatically realize their century old quest for the right to self-determination, including independence. However, relying on unconditional support and assistance it has been garnering from Western countries, the current Ethiopian government has reneged on pledges it made in its constitution and quickly turned into military-jack-boot. Today, in Ethiopia, there is no political pluralism, freedom of assembly and expression are totally a night mare. Peaceful protest is totally banned and any attempt to do it is being countered by bullet and Ethiopia’s Agazi death Squad. Peaceful expression of political dissent is considered terrorism and several thousands of Oromian peaceful protesters are being killed, so many thousands have been thrown into filzy Ethiopian prison with no formal charges brought against them by impartial court while thousands of Oromians have been confiscated of their land, business permit and chased from work and schools. The current Ethiopian government has turned Oromia, the land of Oromians, into hell on earth. This unjust, exploitative, oppressive, undemocratic and colonial Ethiopian policy has seriously endangered the survival and the existence of Oromia and Oromians than ever before. With these policies, Oromians are left with no option but to fight hard and hard or risk extinction from the face of Oromia. The consequence of lack of peaceful avenue for Oromians to exercise their right to national self-determination is leading to the intensification of the scale and the scope of armed struggle by Oromians. Therefore, the wide scale armed confrontation to which Oromians are resorting due to Ethiopia’s colonial and anti-peace policy, is in fact not good news that we wish to hear. Ethiopian government policy has been a seed bed for lack of democracy, freedom and the right to self-determination in particular and hence a justification for Oromians to go to the extreme to redeem themselves from extinction. Anybody who thinks Oromians will remain quiet when 3.41 million Oromian peasants have been displaced from their ancestral land and Ethiopians (Tigreans) got richer by 35.7 billion dollars selling that land from which Oromian peasants have been displaced do not really know who Oromians are. Oromians are not cowards but brave to fight for every inch of the land and air space that naturally belongs to them. Any negative force in the name of Ethiopia that tries to counter this just and positive effort by Oromians to reclaim this God given rights will remain destructive and destabilizing force in the region of the Horn of Africa.
When Eritrea became de jure independent country in the year 1993, it was an extraordinary celebration not only for Eritreans who paid the ultimate sacrifices to defeat Ethiopia squarely but also for all the colonized people of the Ethiopian Empire who aspire to be free like Eritrea from century old brutal Ethiopian colonialism. However, to the dismay of everyone, after the dust of independence struggle settled, the day of reckoning came as to how to solve the territorial dispute between both countries. The ungrateful Wayyaanee with its never satiating crave for power and domination, quashed both informal and formal effort by Eritrea to solve this border dispute peacefully resorted to war for which Eritreans had no appetite at all. This premeditated plan by Ethiopian government led by Wayyaanee resulted in the renewed war between both countries in the year 1998-2000 the outcome of which was the death of over 100,000 lives from both side, that of Ethiopia constituting over 80 percent, and the land over which the war began given back to Eritrea as the legitimate owner by the Algiers agreement signed between Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia and Afeworki of Eritrea in 2001. Even if the agreement signed between both parties had an international backings and both sides were obliged to implement the agreement, the failure to do so by Ethiopia has never attracted international condemnation and pressure. Despite the fact that they have tremendous clout and influence over the affairs and decision making processes of Ethiopia, the Western countries so far have not shown any genuine and persistent effort to force Ethiopia to relinquish its control over Badime to Eritrea. This international crime, has dragged on since 2001 and as we hear today, has led to the renewed danger of war between Eritrea and Ethiopia, by extension therefore going to destabilize the Horn of Africa by the full knowledge and approval of the Western countries.
Unless Eritrea decides to pursue holistic and practical security strategy that can help her defeat Ethiopia and remove the threat that Ethiopia poses to its sovereignty and peace forever, there are many reasons why Ethiopia’s relation with Eritrea will never improve but will remain hostile and confrontational for many years to come. Though the war that broke out between these countries by Ethiopia’s provocation in 1998 consumed the lives of 120,000 Wayyaanee soldiers, the bulk of which was Oromians, as compared to 19,000 from Eritrean side, the land over which Ethiopia claimed sovereignty was given to Eritrea by Algiers agreement signed by Meles and Afeworki in 2001. Abiding by this agreement and pulling out of Badime by Ethiopia has been a toll order and will remain so because of its political cost and liability to its legitimacy. Handing over Badime to Eritrea after the loss of that lives, will put Ethiopia in embarrassing position and will certainly erode the victor card it has been using to legitimize its illegal rule over Oromia and the rest of the Empire. From Ethiopia’s side, the colonial and egomaniac behavior remain to be stumbling block to lack of rapprochement with Eritrea. Due to the fact that it is political suicide to do so, unless forced to vacate the land that legally and historically belongs to Eritreans, Ethiopia will never accept the sovereign power of Eritrea over Badime and Eritrea will also never let Badime go because of its nationalistic ideology, fear of political back clash, its threat to unity and survival as a nation.
Until Eritrea put its security strategy right and gets upper hand to force Badime out of the control of Ethiopia, another reason why both countries will remain in state of war is because of the expansionist and rapacious policy of Ethiopian government. Hiding its grand policy of reuniting Eritrea with Ethiopia and ensure its access to Asab and Massawa for a convenient time, recognition of Eritrean independence by Wayyaanee has been only a tactical decision to only legitimize and stabilize its colonial rule over Oromia. Ethiopia has been harboring secret plan to abolish Eritrean independence and put back under Ethiopia rule the same way Haile Sillassie and Mangistu did. Ethiopian governments dream to unleash its secret agenda on Eritrea after crashing Oromian independence movement and its threat to its power over Oromia. The current Ethiopian government has copy and paste of the policy followed on Eritrea by the UN and Ethiopian regimes before it. As the result of this Ethiopia’s policy of expansionism and aggression, the cloud of war between these two countries will never be removed.
From lack of interest by the UN and Western powers to force Ethiopia into implementing the Algeries agreement that give Badime back to its original owner and it’s all out :economic, political and diplomatic war against Eritrea, it needs no rocket scientist to conclude that, there has been international convergence of policy with that of Ethiopia for regime change in Eritrea with the aim of putting Western and Ethiopia’s puppet in place that will gradually abolish Eritrea as independent country and facilitate it’s annexation by Ethiopia. Therefore, if it is not quickly dismantled, Ethiopia will remain the perfect instrument for Western powers to implement their: illegal, expansionist, colonial and unjust policy against Eritrean people.
The shibboleth political policies, the chauvinism, the arrogance and the ever back ward Ethiopian opposition political, business and religious leaders as well as their intellectuals are another factors that compound the problem for Ethio-Eritrea to be solved legally and peacefully. Next to Oromian independence war, these backward forces who always want to live in denial are political forces that Wayyaanee has to reckon with in Ethiopian Empire today. As Wayyaanee needs these forces for its political survival and to counter Oromian struggle for independence, these forces need Wayyaanee too. When the threat of Oromian independence becomes strong to its rules, Wayyaanee raises the flag of Ethiopian unity to rally the support of these forces to stay in power while these forces use Wayyaanee to push their agenda of old Ethiopian unity, including bringing back Eritrea under Ethiopian rule. Including those who have heavily infiltrated Ethiopia’s ruling party today, these Ethiopia’s opposition forces, have similar secret policies with Wayyaanee on Oromian and Eritrean independence. The life of their tactical support for Eritrean independence is conditioned by the strength of Oromian independence struggle. Their dream is to first defeat and remove the threat of Oromian independence struggle and turn their gun to annexing Eritrea. The quicker the Ethiopian government brings the threat of Oromian independence struggle under its control, the immediate its campaign of annexing Eritrea will be.
Eritrea’s security strategies and policy choices should be decided with the aim of removing these regional and international threats, with particular attention to the existential threat that comes from Ethiopia, and securing Eritrean: territorial integrity, peace and prosperity for the current Eritrean generation and generations to come. To achieve this national security and development goal easily, opportunities are abound for Eritrea. As obviously clear for Eritrean policy makers, there are many oppressed nations who faces the same existential threat from Ethiopia as Eritrea does. Due to the fact that these colonized and oppressed nations are fighting to regain their independence from Ethiopia, these people and their organizations are reliable and strategic partner for Eritrea. As Eritrea used double edged strategy to defeat Mangistu by fighting it in Eritrea and fighting outside Eritrea, Eritrea should strongly coordinate its strategies with the nations fighting for independence from Ethiopia. Oromo people are one of the nations that has been facing the same existential threat from Ethiopia as Eritrea does. The objective of the Oromo Liberation Front that represent the wishes and the aspiration of Oromoo people is to dismantle Ethiopian empire and establish People’s Democratic Republic of Oromia. The realization of this objective by the OLF is going to be a volcano like forces that will certainly and permanently remove Ethiopia’s threat to Eritrea for posterity.
In this organization and other political organizations fighting for the independence of their people from Ethiopia, Eritrea has got strong allay and great opportunities because defeating Ethiopian Empire, dismantling its colonial system and allowing these nations to freely exercise their natural right to self-determination is not only a guarantee for the peace and security of Eritrea alone but for the entire Horn of Africa. Therefore, for Eritrea, to remove Ethiopian perpetual threat to its sovereignty, peace and prosperity for ever, supporting Oromian independence in particular and that of all oppressed people of Ethiopia is not only a key, but it is a matter of survival. The fact that Oromia and Eritrea will not border each other, the culture of openness, peace, dialogue and gratefulness Oromians have, will also be great potential for unparalleled diplomatic, military and economic cooperation to develop between these countries. The current friendly relation that exist between Oromia and Eritrea is actually laying strong ground for that future we both dream. For these united front between Eritrea and the colonized people of Ethiopia to achieve its common goal, Eritrea’s support and assistance should be scaled up in such a way that it can counter balance this existential Ethiopian threat to all. This abundant territory, resources and population over which Ethiopia has unfettered monopoly source of the threat to colonized people of Ethiopia and Eritrea. The priority of Eritrean and Oromian alliance against this common Ethiopian threat should be to formulate a clear and practical joint strategy and policies whose sole aim will be to remove this threat forever and embark on national reconstruction. For Eritrean and Oromian: natural, human and physical resources to be freed for development and prosperity, this is going to be the surest path.
Oromian Independence is a beacon for Regional peace.